Chapter 152: The Way to Kill a Bear (Part 1)

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**How to Kill a Bear (Part 1) by Feiyue**

[Collection of Reviews] How to Kill a Bear (Part 1) by Feiyue

Ning Yi's cunning and Tan Er's management skills make them an exceptional couple.

Today, Banana wrote an astonishing seven thousand words! After finishing today's update, I sighed deeply: "It's not that the Wu family didn't try hard, but their opponent was too clever." The actual downfall of the Wu family hasn't been written yet, but that no longer seems important. Throughout the story, what truly struck me was Ning Yi's straightforward, simple, yet utterly unbreakable strategy in the imperial merchant scheme.

Recently, the discussion forum has been quite lively. The user "Camphor Ball" even predicted the imperial merchant plot with surprising accuracy before Banana had written it, completely spoiling Feiyue's enjoyment of anticipating future plot developments. (Alas, this is mainly because updates are too infrequent, not too slow. Compared to *Yin Sha*'s weekly 3,000 words or bi-monthly updates, this is incredibly fast production.)

Therefore, this post is not meant to praise the protagonist's power, but rather to offer a psychological analysis: Why did the Wu family fall into the trap so easily? And why, once ensnared, were they unable to react, inevitably heading towards ruin?

Before discussing anything, let's briefly outline the Wu family's entire imperial merchant scheme:

1. Su Boyong was maliciously assassinated by the Wu family, causing the First Branch of the Su family to lose its actual leader and morale (accused of oppressing the common people). This was a moral advantage.2. Su Tan Er lost her competitiveness in the imperial merchant affair because the fabric she had prepared for three years was stolen. This completely disheartened the First Branch (accomplished by Student Xi and other moles). This was leveraging the actual situation.3. Ning Lihuan was considered a weak scholar, no threat, as he couldn't possibly understand the rules of commercial warfare.4. The Wu family would secure the imperial merchant contract, gaining the trust of the royal family. The annual tribute cloth was secondary; the main benefits were policy support and official protection, which would push their already saturated enterprise in Jiangning nationwide and further expand their market.

The entire plan could be considered flawless because the Su family was not truly united. The Second and Third Branches had long disliked Su Tan Er, and even Manager Xi, who should have been completely loyal, conspired with the Wu family for special reasons, undermining the First Branch.

However, there is always a gap between ideal and reality, and even this perfect plan encountered unexpected situations:

1. The Wu family's plan was largely successful in its first point, which requires no discussion.2. Student Xi knew Su Tan Er had produced an excellent fabric, but he didn't know it would fade (due to Tan Er's information blockade). This was the first variable, or miscalculation, in the entire plan.3. Regarding Lihuan, haha, this was the second variable, and a complete miscalculation (not because of the protagonist; absolutely not).4. This point also needs no discussion, as whoever wins will have this possibility, and vice versa.

So, here's the core: these two variables, Tan Er and Ning Yi. I personally believe Tan Er's actual role was even greater than Lihuan's. I'll explain why below.

However, I hope all readers, after reading this post, don't simply dismiss Feiyue's analysis as mere speculation. Appropriate speculation is essential, a necessary process for scholars. It's about reading between the lines, discerning the author's implied meaning, not explicitly stated but hinted at—in short, drawing inferences.

First, about the protagonist:

Ning Lihuan was the variable in the Wu family's plan, but only a decisive external factor. His way of thinking wasn't based on the rules of the Wu Dynasty, but on experience from a later era—he's what's known as someone who completely defies conventional wisdom. And his opponents didn't know what cards he held, nor did they even think he could play, which was the biggest problem.

This is like Feiyue, an amateur fourth-dan Go player, treating a top-tier ninth-dan Go master as an 18-kyu weakling on the street, boldly offering to give him a nine-stone handicap. You can imagine how he would die.

So, Lihuan turned their scheme against them, setting up a deeper trap that successfully ensnared his enemies. Let's once again look at the overall strategy of this counter-move:

Abandon the imperial merchant contract!

Abandon the fight for the imperial merchant contract; instead, stabilize the existing assets and industries in Jiangning, find the true mastermind behind the scenes, and await an opportune moment.

Why did Lihuan devise such a plan? Because of an objective environmental factor:

The fading fabric.

This represented the loss of competitiveness for their main product. This was the most fundamental and critical reason, the greatest crisis. If the quality of the product itself changes and no solution can be found, it's basically a fatal blow in commercial warfare. Without truly superior product performance, customers (the royal family, or in modern terms, the upper class, the largest consumer group) are not fools and have no need to be loyal to you. From ancient times to the present, customers are always the savviest when spending money. Don't expect to profit from chaos; that's a cheap trick used by low-class, shady merchants who grab a quick profit and run. This is impossible for a merchant family of the Su's standing. So, once this problem occurred, Lihuan knew that his ultimate decision had to be to withdraw from the imperial merchant competition. This imperial merchant contract could no longer be pursued, nor should it be.

However, withdrawing from the imperial merchant contract is not as simple as a child's game of "you can come or you can go." At least three other difficulties arose, preventing Lihuan from revealing his true intentions early on:

1. First, the Emperor's power of life and death:2. Second, the future status of the First Branch;3. Third, the fate of the invested funds;

1. Regarding imperial power, Banana made it clear at the beginning of this imperial merchant plot that Su Tan Er had prepared for three years for this annual meeting. Because they were dealing with the imperial family and doing business with the state mechanism, they naturally had to show sufficient sincerity in advance. These three years meant the Su family's First Branch had already guaranteed their investment intentions. In an era of imperial power, only the royal family could unconditionally halt a project at any time. There was absolutely no way for a merchant association to unilaterally terminate a contract. Suddenly terminating a contract could even be considered deceiving the emperor, with unpredictable consequences. They truly had a bitter pill to swallow and had to continue.

That's why Su Tan Er initially didn't just halt the project but had the workers try to solve the problem. The Wu family later did the same, because a higher official can crush a person, let alone the Emperor? This was an effort for basic survival; they couldn't just back out. Lihuan fully understood how serious this was and how terrifying the power of the mobilized state machine could be. He had died in his previous life precisely because of this, so he couldn't possibly forget the lesson.

2. The imperial merchant contract was Tan Er's painstaking effort for many years, the core and source of her drive. The main reason she pursued it was to secure the future status of the First Branch. Her father was old with no legitimate son, and she was a woman. The Grand Elder had chosen a husband for her who was merely a talented scholar, with no business acumen or rigorous training. Therefore, in the future, if there was no flexibility from state law and commercial patronage, after her father passed away, the already fragile First Branch could completely lose its power. Tan Er couldn't possibly fail to prepare early. This was a struggle for future quality of life, prestige, and power. On this point, she also couldn't consider retreating. Lihuan, of course, couldn't arbitrarily halt the project; he needed appropriate means to show the unsuitability of the situation.

3. Money spent is like spilled water; the same money cannot be used in two places. Due to the first two reasons, the First Branch had already invested most of its available funds into this plan. If it failed completely, even if the imperial family didn't blame them, or their status didn't change, there would be no remaining liquid funds. This would make them very passive in commercial profit-seeking and decision-making. Lihuan was ostensibly an outsider, so he naturally couldn't directly state his intention to withdraw from the imperial merchant contract. That would be disrespectful to the entire undertaking, and the money spent couldn't be recovered. It needed to be utilized more constructively to achieve a win-win situation.

Therefore, before anything began, Lihuan had to have that long night talk with Su Tan Er. Banana didn't write everything fully in the book; it wasn't just for Tan Er to say "we should consummate our marriage." It was about the thread of the fabric. From later plot developments, this fabric must have been the breakthrough result of Tan Er's three years of preparation and many years of planning. All colorfastness tests were successful, but...

(The reason it naturally faded... Haha, this should actually be a normal reaction where new things naturally look old after prolonged exposure to time and air. Anything we use for a long time gets old; this is perfectly normal. It's just that, unfortunately, in this case, the dye would naturally fade after such oxidation, so this was not a problem that could be solved by chemical treatment. Thus, Lihuan had no ideas, no way to solve it.)

Due to the sudden disappointment, Tan Er herself said, "We can't compete anymore... husband." That night, Lihuan must have seized that rare, possibly only, opportunity to explain his plan to withdraw from the imperial merchant project... (The details wouldn't be revealed; revealing them would prevent success, because to act convincingly, even your own people must be deceived.) So Tan Er and the three maids must have understood what Lihuan was going to do, but whether the specific actions would truly succeed? That could only be left to fate.

From now on, Lihuan began to display his extraordinary talent, using stillness to control movement; like an experienced hunter preparing to kill the great black bear that might appear from anywhere.

**Title:** How to Kill a Bear (Part 1) by Feiyue

**Body:**

**Harmless:** I found it captivating and look forward to reading more. Perhaps check out Wen Xue 5 Bar; a genius like you will figure it out in three seconds.