Chapter 166: To the Stage of "Sunshine Plot"

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### Up to the "Open Conspiracy" Stage... The Shameless Capital Playboy

### Compilation of Book Reviews: Up to the "Open Conspiracy" Stage... The Shameless Capital Playboy

### Analysis Report on the Leanings of Various Factions Up to the "Open Conspiracy" Stage, with Future Development Prospects

To analyze the situation, one must first identify the current factions involved. Overall, there are eight:

1. The Su Family2. The Wu Family3. The Xue Family and various smaller families4. The Jiangning Weaving Bureau5. The Imperial Household Department (Royal Procurement Office + Tribute Office)6. The Jiangning Prefectural Yamen7. The Kang Prince's Estate8. Local literati and officials (the "Qingliu")

These eight are the key entities involved.

Understanding this foundation, the next step is to analyze the relationships between these factions before the Imperial Merchant Conference.

1. **The Su Family:** It's unknown if their target is definitively the Wu family, but it's clear they have identified a confirmed enemy who has already fallen into their trap.

2. **The Wu Family:** Their target is the Su family. They successfully stole the results of the Su family's research (albeit an inferior version) and, upon examination, determined that without using this achievement, they couldn't attain Imperial Merchant status. Therefore, they decided to use the stolen goods to secure the Imperial Merchant title.

3. **The Xue Family and Various Smaller Families:** All harbor expectations for the Imperial Merchant title, though not significant ones. They are mildly hostile towards the Su family, watch the Wu family closely, and also eye each other, meaning they will exploit any weakness they find.

4. **The Weaving Bureau:** Their relationships with all families are generally amicable, with a slight leaning towards the Wu family. This might be due to the Wu family spending more money, or there could be other reasons. However, it's only a slight preference because even if the Wu family were to win the Imperial Merchant title, they would still need to present cloth that genuinely surpasses other families' products (which is why they resorted to stealing the formula rather than using their own fabric, as the Su family had promoted their cloth so effectively). This is unlike the current backroom dealings where merely acceptable cloth suffices. This indicates that the Weaving Bureau is only "slightly" biased towards the Wu family (perhaps subtly adjusting the order of priority for bright fabrics), or even that a particular faction within the Weaving Bureau holds a slight bias towards the Wu family.

5. **The Imperial Household Department:** Currently, they maintain neutrality. After the Imperial Merchant Conference, several key figures might have been bribed by Manager Liao (don't assume that demands must be made and settled immediately after a bribe is accepted; that's too naive. With genuine payoffs, money is delivered incrementally, and once received, they naturally await your request. If you don't make a request, they become uneasy. Thus, when action is needed, a small "token of filial piety" is sent again, followed by a request to further harm an opponent. If no action is needed, a small gift can be sent for any other minor favor. Whether or not to attack the Wu family and push them further down is entirely within the Su family's control). As for whether Manager Liao's arrangements are complete and secure, given Tan'er's calm demeanor in the text, they should be. And considering Manager Liao's years of experience in networking, the chance of failure is low.

6. **The Prefectural Yamen:** They generally maintain neutrality. In the matter of Chen Er, the Wu family gained the upper hand, having planned for an unknown period and catching the Su family off guard. However, the Su family reacted quickly, within a short time, getting Chen Er to confess he was hired to kill, though the mastermind remains unknown because "he didn't know." This "he didn't know" is quite normal. Whether further investigations were conducted afterward is unknown. This shows that within the Prefectural Yamen, the balance of power between the two families is relatively even, though the Su family might be at a slight disadvantage, but only "slightly," and combined with the Wu family's head start. In this Imperial Merchant incident, conversely, the Su family had over a month's head start in planning. Who holds the slight advantage in the Prefectural Yamen now is unknown.

7. **The Kang Prince's Estate:** They lean slightly towards the Su family (Ning Yi is the Kang Prince's heir's tutor). Furthermore, during the Imperial Merchant incident, especially on the night the Imperial Merchant was confirmed, the Kang Prince's heir and the princess basically followed along throughout (look closely at the "New Era" chapter: after Ning Yi went downstairs, he glared at everyone, and then the two familiar attendants and servants followed him out). This might be a foreshadowing.

8. **Various Literati and Officials (Qingliu):** When mentioning the Qingliu, the main focus is Elder Kang. Elder Kang is a royal son-in-law and a prominent scholar of his time. However, don't forget his other identity: he and his wife, Zhou Xuan, manage a large number of "businesses." Although not involved in politics, their influence within the "royal family" is considerable (note the quotation marks). This person leads various Qingliu factions, and his inclination leans slightly towards the Su family. While it would be difficult to make him cooperate with Ning Yi in doing anything illicit, it would be effortless to make him "act impartially" and "speak forthrightly," especially in cases involving the royal family.

Having analyzed the aims and leanings of each faction, let's proceed with a further analysis: what would have happened to the Su family without Ning Yi, or without the combined efforts of the Old Master, Tan'er, and Ning Yi in this strategic arrangement?

Without this plan, the Su family would undoubtedly have been unable to compete for the Imperial Merchant title due to their fabric fading. Furthermore, with Su Boyong's paralysis rendering him unable to manage the overall situation, the Su family's first branch would have been significantly weakened, falling into a disadvantage in the internal struggles against the second and third branches. Perhaps the Old Master would have sacrificed the first branch to protect the main family by reclaiming its power, or he might have stubbornly supported the first branch (this is unlikely). Regardless, an internal struggle within the Su family would have been inevitable. At this point, the Wu family, having been promoted from a first-tier fabric merchant to the sole top-tier merchant in Jiangning, would certainly have suppressed the Su family to some extent to prevent future retaliation. The Su family, having depleted funds due to internal strife and losing the Imperial Merchant title, would inevitably enter a defensive state. The Xue family and other smaller families would follow the Wu family, carving up the market share abandoned by the Su family, and together suppressing the Su family to gain more profits. At this point, the Su family, once on par with the Wu and Xue families as first-tier, would inevitably be relegated to second-tier status. This outcome would have been unacceptable to the Su family, at least to the Old Master and Su Tan'er. It was then that Ning Yi appeared, and the three collaborated to orchestrate a comeback.

How the specific plan was executed will not be discussed in detail here (in fact, I haven't fully thought through a few key points and dare not discuss them). The next step is to analyze the leanings of each faction after the "New Era" chapter (omitting repetitions).

1. **The Su Family:** Their primary target is the Wu family, with all (or part of) their offensive capabilities directed at them.

2. **The Wu Family:** They have become the Imperial Merchant and are already leveraging this advantage to open new markets. Locally, they are waiting for internal strife within the Su family to launch an attack. However, at this point, they discover their fabric has begun to fade.

3. **The Xue Family and Various Smaller Families:** Tentative attacks have begun, but most families are still waiting for internal strife within the Su family.

4. **The Weaving Bureau:** Their closeness with the Wu family has slightly increased (as they are the Imperial Merchant), but their overall stance remains unchanged.

After this, Ning Yi's "showdown" or "reveal" occurs, which is the crux of the debate. Let's analyze what would happen if there were no showdown. Without it, the Wu family would request an extension from the Weaving Bureau in ten days. At this point, the Su family's biggest leverage is to prevent the Wu family from even obtaining an extension. Why? All that's needed is for the Su family, through its network within the Weaving Bureau, to leak the news that the Wu family's fabric has started to fade, after the Wu family makes their request. With such a significant issue, who would dare make a rash decision? Verification of whether the goods are truly fading would inevitably be demanded. If the Wu family admits to the fading, it's manageable; the Weaving Bureau would submit a petition admitting oversight and explaining the situation, with the fault not being too severe. Then, the Su family's arrangements in the capital would be activated, leaving the Wu family in an extremely passive state, though with a possibility of "cutting off a limb to survive." Even if they survived, they would be severely weakened, and the damaged portion would be consumed by the Su, Xue, and other smaller families. Since the Su family has the upper hand, they would gain the most. What if the Wu family denied the fading? Would they try to bluff their way through? Well, even if they managed to deceive the Weaving Bureau, its leaders would surely harbor doubts. Don't forget, over a month has passed since the Imperial Merchant Conference, and the sample fabrics the Wu family initially presented are still on record at the Weaving Bureau or Imperial Household Department. A few more days, and a simple check would reveal the truth. If that happened, the accusation that the Wu family passed off inferior goods as tribute and tried to cover it up would be solidified. As mere merchants, the Wu family would have nearly implicated the Weaving Bureau's leaders in a major crime of deceiving the emperor. It would be surprising if the Weaving Bureau's leaders, while petitioning for their own forgiveness, didn't exaggerate the Wu family's "crimes." The outcome would be self-evident. This is just the simplest tactic the Su family could employ, the one with the smallest scope of impact. This is merely an example; if they wished to broaden the impact, more methods are available.

Next, the key focus is analyzing the outcome now that Ning Yi has revealed his hand.

After the revelation, there are only two possible outcomes: 1. The Wu family compromises, or 2. The Wu family does not compromise. If the Wu family compromises, there's not much to say. Let's discuss what happens if the Wu family does not compromise.

First, let's address the notion proposed by "Camphor Ball" that the Weaving Bureau would directly arrest the entire Su family, subject them to torture, frame them, etc. These claims are fundamentally impossible. The Weaving Bureau is not the Eastern Depot or the Embroidered Uniform Guard; it has no power to make arrests. The people at the Prefectural Yamen are not fools either; no one would dare to execute a plan to wipe out your rival's entire family, even if you offer hundreds of thousands or millions of taels. Moreover, even if they were foolish, the Kang Prince's heir and the princess have keen eyes and saw everything they were meant to see. Do you truly believe you can conceal everything? In the Song Dynasty (or the pseudo-Song Wuchao), "hearsay reports to the emperor" were very powerful. Censors would find ways to cause trouble even when there was nothing, let alone with real evidence.

Alright, having dismissed the unreliable scenarios, let's discuss the plausible ones. If the Wu family doesn't compromise, they must ensure their comeback plan is completed within 10 days, or there's a high probability their entire family will be annihilated.

Here, a point must be made: the Wu family is not an individual, but a family composed of dozens, even hundreds (likely more) of people. It's a collective, and decisions won't be made based on the preferences or impulses of one or a few individuals.

Returning to the main point: how can the Wu family ensure their comeback plan is completed within 10 days (actually less than 10 days, as showing sincerity and completing various procedures would take at least a few days, so if the Wu family shows no sincere reaction within a certain number of days, it can be directly considered a surrender; this "certain number of days" could be three, five, who knows)? In that scenario, the Wu family might take the following actions:

1. **Go to the capital to start bribing officials.** This would be the most foolish choice because, within a few days, they would likely not even meet the principal officials, let alone arrange for them to take action. Once time runs out, the Su family would use the simplest method: reveal the news at the Jiangning Weaving Bureau, and everything would revert to the state before Ning Yi's reveal, with no changes and no loss to the Su family.

2. **Voluntarily go to the Weaving Bureau to confess their crime.** This is also very unwise. To quote Banana (the author), without any prior arrangements, this isn't a confession; it's walking into your death.

3. **Bribe the Su family's second and third branches?** The Su family's clan meeting already has a set schedule; no matter how much they bribe, it would be difficult to move it up. Even if a clan meeting were held, and the truth revealed directly there, does anyone really think those old foxes of the clan would be useless? Would they not see what benefits the Su family most?

4. **Bribe other families to gang up against the Su family.** This is plausible, but not highly feasible. With such a massive undertaking, the Su family would surely get wind of it. As soon as they caught even a whisper, the Su family would immediately leak the news, and other families would flee from the Wu family rather than join them. Do they think their families' lives are too long?

5. **I saw a post suggesting marrying a daughter into the Su family's second or third branch.** This is utterly ridiculous. Could marrying a daughter solve any problems? Power should belong to the first branch, and to Su Tan'er; would it be transferred to the branch into which a daughter is married just because of a marriage? Please, you are not here to negotiate; you have no right to make any demands.

The current situation is as follows:

1. **The Su Family:** Holds the biggest advantage: time. The Su family can prevent the Wu family from even getting an extension for delivery, leaving them almost no reaction time (at most ten days) to face the potential fate of having their family raided and annihilated. Note: it's "possible" they could be raided and annihilated; of course, they might not be, but who dares to gamble?

2. **The Wu Family:** What they lack most is time for internal and external lobbying. With this breathing room, while they might still face annihilation, the chances would be significantly reduced. In other words, the Su family's greatest threat to the Wu family is their ability to increase this probability. How much it increases is anyone's guess.

3. **The Xue Family and Other Families:** While vaguely sensing something is amiss, they are mostly still in the dark. If any opportunity arises, they will gladly seize it to further harm either the Su family or the Wu family, without holding back.

4. **Others:** Omitted.

The Wu family is now, in essence, sitting at a gambling table. On one side, they can trust the Su family, which has a certain probability of reducing their chances of being raided and annihilated (what a mouthful). On the other side, they can distrust the Su family, in which case the Su family will definitely increase their chances of being raided and annihilated. If you were the head of the family, how would you choose? If you were not the head but just a member of the clan council, or just a relative, how would you choose? Fight them? Easy to say, but would others follow your impulsive decision?

The above is my analysis of the situation. Below are a few digressions.

First, regarding whether the Wu family committed treason. The definition of treason is very vague; often, it's determined entirely by the emperor's mood or preferences.

The Wu family's actions are clear: they secured the Imperial Merchant special supply right with one type of fabric, then turned around and said they couldn't deliver that fabric because they suddenly discovered it would fade. This action is laid bare; its nature is entirely a matter of rhetoric (do not suggest the unreliable idea of monthly deliveries; clothes for the emperor, excluding ceremonial robes, even ordinary ones with various embroideries and appliqués, would take hundreds of people two to three months to complete. The emperor's dragon robe would require over a thousand people working for more than half a year. A month is merely a sleeve, which is simply laughable). If this matter were told by someone from the Imperial Household Department to the emperor when he was in a good mood, perhaps he would simply laugh it off. But what if the emperor had already seen the sample fabric through other channels and was full of anticipation, or if, before the Imperial Household Department, a eunuch, a guard, a concubine, or even a passing palace maid "accidentally" overheard gossip about this matter? What if, during the gossip, they added some speculative remarks like "Could there be ulterior motives?" or "Aren't we short of money for the war?" Or what if a censor suddenly exposed it during court with righteous indignation? What the emperor's reaction would be, no one knows. Construction is always harder than destruction. Construction requires specialists for specific activities, while destruction might just be a butterfly flapping its wings, creating a gust of wind, isn't it?

Second, regarding what the Su family can do. Much has already been said, so I won't reiterate it here.

Finally, Ning Yi's reputation is entirely irrelevant. Many readers, with their omniscient perspective, believe Ning Yi actually did nothing. In reality, Ning Yi indeed did nothing. People will speculate, they will be confused, but Ning Yi remains the scholar Ning Yi.

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